In the same way many Irish like to cheer England’s misfortune on the football field despite supporting English teams and watching UK soaps any schadenfreude at the UKs latest travails with the EU should not be a cause for happiness amongst Irish policy makers. In fact a further fracturing of the UKs relationship with the EU over the next few years presents a major policy challenge to Ireland. With hundreds of civil servants, advisors and think tank personnel at his disposal David Cameron could not have made a mistake about Jean Claude Junker and the “Spitzenkanidat” process. The Prime Minister clearly chose this unwinnable confrontation for both domestic consumption and as a scene setter for his EU policy over the next few years which is now clearly focussed on an in/out referendum as a sword of damocles over a renegotiated relationship.
That all this is very serious for Ireland hardly needs to be stated. Ireland needs to establish where the UK is going and how to engage with that journey. While many believe it impossible that the UK would leave the EU the potency of events to lead to unanticipated results cannot be ignored. The first task in this journey is to get a fix on what exactly are the issues for the UK. Despite constant public debate and a level of toxicity about the European issue in UK politics it can still be hard to determine precisely what it is the UK wants in real tangible terms. Certainly there is a general dissatisfaction about the EU and an expressed desire for a loose trading arrangement without much central political authority. This is fine as far as it goes but any renegotiation will have to be article by article on the existing treaties and few of the other 27 will agree to wholesale dismantling of the carefully balanced deals that have gone in to each.
Areas where unanimity exists should not be an issue for the UK and they also currently have opt outs in many other areas such as justice and home affairs and social policy. The other main area would be the single market where qualified majority voting often speeds up the process. While UK tabloids may have great fun with stories about bananas and toilet flushing the reality is the UK is one of the biggest supporters and beneficiaries of the single market. Core to the UKs problems with the EU seems to be being outvoted in certain key areas such as free movement and internal EU migration. The principal of free movement is as central to the EU as parliamentary democracy is to the UK, trying to dilute it for the other 27 will fail. A solution may be found where the UK can resile from some commitments in this field but this will surely come at a price for the considerable UK expatriate community in the EU.
So what are the Issues for Ireland? There could be many. Already we are subject to many restrictions relating to the EU not of our making in order to maintain a bilateral common travel area with the UK for example in relation to Schengen free movement arrangements. Further change in this area could have considerable impact on Ireland and North/South relations on the island. Similarly on justice and home affairs we have been boxed in to a corner due to sharing a common law system with the UK which may have impacts in the area of fundamental rights. Social policy and social security would be another area, in fact the issues could go on and on depending on how extensive the UK approach to renegotiation is.
So critically it is vital to Ireland that the UK establishes what exactly it is they want so that Ireland can shadow the course of negotiations. This is problematic however as the issue has become so divisive in UK domestic politics. Real leadership is surely now needed in the UK. If there is an agreement on renegotiation it needs to be an all party one. The UKs national interest is poorly served by ongoing squabbling and jockeying on the European issue, it is surely now way more important than that. A Royal Commission would enable a truly agreed and national view to emerge which would assist the other EU states and particularly Ireland to get an idea about what precisely is at issue and what is not.
Ireland will have to negotiate bilaterally with the UK on any sensitive issues, similarly Ireland will have to engage with other member states should developments disadvantage us as any renegotiated package must be unanimously agreed by the other 27. In many respects it should not have to come to this. Existing arrangements relating to opt outs and enhanced co-operation may be sufficient to accommodate a member state that is less committed than the others. Ireland also has a similar approach to the the UK on a number of issues like taxation and defence. It would be unfortunate to loose such an ally but we must be prepared for all eventualities
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